US Treasury Yields Climb Again as Inflation Derails Post-Election Rally

what happened

Per Stocktwits, US government bonds gave back their earlier gains in the week ending November 13. Hopes that the post-election rally would signal the end of this year's debt selloff faded as persistent inflation and harsher comments from Federal Reserve officials took over.

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5% for the first time since the week ending October 26. The two-year yield jumped 35 basis points over five sessions, its steepest weekly rise in more than two years. The dollar index gained 0.7% to its highest level since May 2025 as currency traders priced in a more aggressive Fed path.

The pressure spread to sovereign debt markets worldwide. The trigger was October consumer price data, which beat economist forecasts for the third straight month. Fed Governor Christopher Waller backed a possible half-point hike if inflation momentum persists, and the presidents of the Dallas and Chicago Fed banks echoed that view. Markets now fully price in a December rate increase.

why it matters

For markets, this means higher borrowing costs and pressure on long-dated bonds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF, TLT, posted its worst week since April 2025. Rising yields raise the opportunity cost of risk assets, while a stronger dollar weighs on currency pairs and dollar-denominated commodities.

market impact

US Treasuries: rising yields pressure bond prices, while the dollar strengthens on expectations of tighter Fed policy

• ▼Long-dated US Treasuries (TLT) pressure down — rising yields lower their prices as markets price in Fed rate hikes
• ▲US Dollar Index pressure up — traders price in a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy path

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