Russian crude exports from western ports seen falling in November

what happened

Crude exports from Russia's Baltic and Black Sea ports are expected to decline next month, two traders said. Domestic refiners plan to raise output after maintenance ends and produce more diesel, in line with a fuel deal agreed this month between Washington and Moscow.

The traders estimated that seaborne crude exports, including Kazakh oil moved through Russia's pipeline network, may fall by roughly 0.1-0.2 million barrels per day in November versus the previous month, citing preliminary lifting plans. They warned the picture could change because of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy sites. Risks in the Black Sea are also delaying loadings at Novorossiysk by nearly three weeks. Fewer Urals cargoes are likely to travel the Northern Sea Route to Asia as navigation winds down in November.

why it matters

Lower exports from western ports mean less crude reaching a world market already short of fuel after Middle East supply disruptions. That supports prices for crude and diesel, though the size of the effect depends on how quickly refineries and loadings recover.

market impact

Oil and diesel: lower Russian western-port exports tighten supply, supporting prices

• ▲Brent pressure up — lower Russian crude exports from western ports tighten global supply
• ▲Diesel pressure up — refiners shifting output to diesel amid a global fuel shortage

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