Bank of Korea sees chip exports falling up to $100 billion if US AI spending cools

what happened

The Bank of Korea estimates South Korea's semiconductor exports could come in $50 billion to $100 billion below its earlier projections if large American technology companies scale back artificial intelligence investment next year. The figures appear in a written reply the central bank sent to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, based on a "pessimistic scenario" it modelled.

Under that case, the sudden export shortfall would reduce GDP growth by about 0.4 percentage point in 2027 and push the current account surplus well below the initial forecast of $430 billion. The scenario also assumes semiconductor unit prices fall 10%. Chips account for roughly half of the country's exports, which is why worries about that dependence are growing.

The central bank points to rapid growth in capital spending by Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle: combined outlays are seen reaching $110 billion next year, compared with $40 billion last year and roughly $80 billion this year. The BOK stresses that uncertainty about AI demand and the memory chip cycle remains considerable.

why it matters

For investors, the report links South Korea's export outlook to the infrastructure plans of the largest cloud companies. A pullback in those budgets would weigh on chipmakers and the won, although the central bank itself calls these estimates uncertain.

market impact

South Korean chipmakers and the won: slower US AI spending would cut chip exports and pressure KOSPI and KRW

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