Gold slips but heads for best weekly gain since early September

what happened

Gold slipped on Friday as swings in oil kept inflation worries alive before a key US jobs report. According to Reuters, spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,070.59 an ounce by 1124 GMT, though the metal had gained roughly 5% so far this week. US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.8% to $4,080.70.

Brent climbed back toward $100 a barrel but was still on course for a sharp weekly decline on hopes of de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict after the midterm elections. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo described the link between oil, inflation and gold as "extremely strong". Costlier energy can justify tighter monetary policy and raises the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which pays no interest.

Investors are waiting for the US non-farm payrolls report, due at 1330 GMT. Staunovo expects gold to get support if the data match forecasts or come in weaker. Two Fed officials on Thursday backed small, steady rate increases, and CME's FedWatch tool shows a 70% chance of a December hike. Spot silver gained 0.6% to $52.04 an ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $1,523.32 and palladium fell 1% to $1,020.90.

why it matters

The key question for metals markets is whether the Fed keeps tightening. Higher energy prices feed inflation and rate expectations, which weighs on gold, while a weak jobs report would ease that pressure. Gold remains well above its one-year low of $3,869.85 an ounce, reached on October 30. On Thursday Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold price forecast to $4,150 from $4,650, citing the Fed's more hawkish stance.

market impact

Gold and silver: Fed rate expectations and oil set the pressure ahead of the US jobs report

• ↔Gold mixed — strong link to oil and Fed rate expectations pulls the price in both directions
• ▼Brent pressure down — hopes for de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict reduce the risk premium

tags

instruments