Fed Hike Bets Climb After Strong October Jobs Report
Markets lifted bets on a December Fed rate hike after October payrolls beat forecasts, with the odds reaching 75% according to LSEG data cited by Market Talk.
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what happened
Money markets have increased their wagers that the Fed will raise rates in December, after October payroll figures came in well above expectations. According to LSEG data, the odds of a December increase climbed to 75% from 72% before the report. Investors now see close to 48 basis points of tightening over the coming year, up from 45 basis points before the release, Market Talk reported.
October brought 165,000 new jobs, compared with the 59,000 analysts had predicted in a Wall Street Journal survey. September's gain was also revised upward, to 60,000 from 29,000.
why it matters
Higher rate expectations usually bolster the dollar and Treasury yields while weighing on bonds and on rate-sensitive equities that depend on cheap borrowing. The strong labor market also reduces the case for an early easing of monetary policy.
market impact
Dollar and Treasuries: firmer Fed hike bets lift yields and support the currency, pressuring bonds
- US dollar pressure up — higher expected policy rates attract demand for dollar-denominated assets
- US Treasuries pressure down — rising hike expectations push yields higher and bond prices lower
- US stocks pressure down — costlier borrowing expectations weigh on valuations of rate-sensitive companies
tags
instruments
on polymarket
sources
- Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Rise After Robust October Payrolls Data — Market Talk, 6 November 2026 at 13:55 UTC
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