Wheat slips as hopes grow for Black Sea grain exports to resume

what happened

Soybean and corn contracts in Chicago climbed on Monday as traders repositioned ahead of the USDA's updated crop estimates due the next day, Reuters reported. The most-traded soybean contract on the CBOT rose 0.59% to $12.75 a bushel by 0147 GMT. Corn gained 0.34% to $4.43 a bushel, while wheat lost 0.38% to $5.89 and stayed close to a four-month low.

Russia and Ukraine have confirmed they will take part in three-way talks with the United States in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11. The prospect of Black Sea grain shipments restarting is weighing on wheat. Fund selling and a steady flow of newly harvested US crops are also pressuring prices.

why it matters

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the USDA to lift its US soybean production estimate to a record 4.597 billion bushels from 4.562 billion in October, while cutting its corn estimate to 15.962 billion from 16.034 billion. Chinese purchases are giving soybeans some support, with the USDA confirming private sales of 136,000 metric tons to China on Friday. In Brazil, farmers had planted 65.45% of the 2026 soybean area, versus 57.68% a year earlier, according to Patria Agronegocios.

market impact

Wheat: hopes for Black Sea exports press prices lower; soybeans and corn get support from Chinese buying.

• ▼Wheat pressure down — a possible restart of Black Sea grain exports would add supply to the market.
• ↔Soybeans mixed — a record US crop forecast weighs, while Chinese purchases provide support.

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