Week Ahead in the US: CPI and PPI Take Center Stage

what happened

Data Week Ahead has published median economist forecasts for next week's US data, compiled from a survey by The Wall Street Journal. The main focus is inflation: the October consumer price index is expected to rise 0.3% m/m, down from 0.6% the month before, while the figure excluding food and energy is seen at 0.2% m/m versus 0.3% previously. No consensus was given for the annual rates, whose prior readings were 3.7% and 2.6%.

Producer prices are forecast to climb 0.4% m/m in October after 1.3% in September, with the core measure seen at 0.3% against 0.7%. Annual PPI growth is expected at 6.7%, compared with 6.3% before. On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 7 are due, with a forecast of 196K against 189K.

Existing home sales for October are expected to fall to 3.80M annualized from 3.99M. The calendar also includes the small business survey, wholesale inventories and the federal budget, where the October 2025 reading showed a deficit of $284 billion.

why it matters

For markets, the key question is the path of inflation. If CPI and PPI come in above expectations, that would strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to keep rates high for longer, which could weigh on Treasury yields and the dollar. Softer figures would, in turn, bolster expectations for monetary easing.

market impact

US Treasuries, the dollar and equity indexes: markets will react to the inflation data

tags

instruments