Seasonal data points to a supportive backdrop for S&P 500 sectors after mid-October

what happened

Seeking Alpha reports that data covering more than seven decades show most S&P 500 sectors ending the period with positive returns in the vast majority of years once markets close on October 14.

Healthcare posted the strongest average gain at 5.7%, finishing higher 81% of the time, with a median result of 6.8%. Consumer discretionary and energy delivered smaller but still positive averages of 3.4% and 3.3%, each rising in roughly 70% of the periods studied. Technology, industrials and materials recorded average returns in the 4% area.

Since 1953, win rates across the eleven tracked sectors have ranged from 70% to 82%. Technology showed the widest swings, while consumer staples were the least volatile. The publisher notes that past results do not guarantee future performance.

why it matters

For markets, this historical record sets a statistical backdrop for the remaining weeks of the year, but it is not a forecast and does not by itself signal where prices are heading.

tags

instruments