Poland's growth slows in Q3 but still outpaces Central European peers

what happened

Reuters reports that Poland's economy slowed in the third quarter but still held a solid pace compared with its Central European neighbours. Preliminary data from Poland's statistics office show GDP rose 3.5% year-on-year, down from 4.1% a quarter earlier and below the 3.6% analysts had expected.

Analysts at PKO Bank expect growth in the fourth quarter to be similar to the third. Hungary and the Czech Republic have already published data pointing to slower expansion.

Slovakia's economy grew just 0.3% year-on-year, its weakest rate since the final quarter of 2022 and a negative surprise for economists. Consumption remains the only growth driver despite fiscal tightening, said Lubomir Korsnak, an analyst at UniCredit in Bratislava. Romania posted 0.1% year-on-year growth against a consensus forecast of a 1.1% contraction, as weaker domestic demand was offset by inflows of EU funds.

why it matters

For markets, Poland's relative strength in the region matters because it can support demand for the zloty and Polish bonds. Weak Slovak growth and near-zero Romanian growth show how uneven Central Europe is, with several economies relying on consumption and EU money rather than investment.

market impact

Zloty and Polish bonds: steady growth above regional peers supports interest in local assets

• ▲zloty pressure up — growth above regional peers supports demand for the currency

tags

instruments