Origin and AGL: Morgan Stanley sees slightly better risk to earnings consensus
Morgan Stanley is slightly more positive on earnings-consensus risk for Origin Energy and AGL as forward power prices rise, but keeps underweight ratings.
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what happened
Morgan Stanley said higher FY28 electricity prices in October have made it marginally more positive on the risk to consensus earnings forecasts for Origin Energy and AGL Energy. The bank still keeps underweight calls on both stocks.
Market participants attribute the rise in forward power prices to plant outages, El Niño, higher forward coal prices and AI-driven load growth, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank says FY28 base load strip prices in New South Wales are up A$16/MWh so far this quarter compared with the three months through September. Prices are also higher in Victoria, and volatility spiked in October.
Despite unchanged bearish calls, the bank prefers Origin over AGL. The information was published by Market Talk.
why it matters
For markets, the move signals that expectations for Australian power costs over the coming years are rising. That can support generator revenue, but it also raises costs and uncertainty for retailers who must buy electricity at higher prices.
market impact
NSW power: higher forward prices signal tighter supply, supporting generators and pressuring retailers' costs
- NSW forward power prices pressure up — plant outages, El Niño and AI-driven load growth push prices higher
tags
instruments
sources
- Origin, AGL Bear 'Incrementally Positive' About Consensus Earnings Risk — Market Talk, 8 November 2026 at 23:04 UTC
prepared by the newsmetry newsroom with ai assistance from the sources listed below. not investment advice.
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