Oil rebounds as Trump downplays need for Iran deal

what happened

Oil prices recovered from early losses and finished higher on Thursday after President Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States does not need an agreement with Iran. Brent for January delivery gained 3.3% to $95.82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for December rose 2.6% to $88.74. Trump also asserted that Washington had gained control of Iranian funds and of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Dow Jones Newswires, citing The Wall Street Journal, Vice President JD Vance is weighing direct talks with a senior Iranian security official, though a face-to-face meeting is still at a preliminary stage. Analysts at Barclays and OCBC argued that the market is underestimating near-term risks, while Ritterbusch & Associates noted that the reaction to Trump's post showed how quickly geopolitical risk can return to prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected 4.7 million barrel rise in crude stocks, a bearish signal that did not halt the rally.

why it matters

The market's reaction shows that a geopolitical premium is still built into crude prices, even as inventories grow. Traders are waiting for the IEA's monthly oil-market report due Friday for a fresh view of supply and demand.

market impact

Crude oil (Brent, WTI): renewed Iran risk premium supports prices

• ▲Brent pressure up — Trump's remarks on Iran talks bring geopolitical risk back into prices
• ▲WTI pressure up — the same geopolitical premium lifts U.S. crude futures

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