Odds of Fed Rate Hike Climb After Strong Jobs Report
According to CME FedWatch, the chance of a Fed rate increase at the next meeting rose to 78% from 67%, after a strong US jobs report.
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what happened
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its next meeting climbed to about 78% from 67% a day earlier, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The move followed a strong employment report. US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the Wall Street Journal consensus of 59,000. Figures for August and September were revised up by 84,000 combined, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%.
The WSJ says the data suggest the central bank will keep its focus firmly on inflation.
why it matters
For markets, this means expectations of tighter Fed policy are growing. Treasury yields and the dollar typically respond to such expectations with gains, while stocks and gold come under pressure. A strong labor market also lowers the chance of an early easing cycle.
market impact
Dollar and US Treasuries: higher rate expectations support the dollar and weigh on bonds
- US dollar pressure up — expectations of higher Fed rates make dollar assets more attractive
- US Treasuries pressure down — rising yields push bond prices lower
- Gold pressure down — higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold
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sources
- Chances of Fed Rate Hike Rise After Strong Jobs Numbers — WSJ, 6 November 2026 at 18:28 UTC
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