New Zealand election polls close with race too tight to call, early results due soon

what happened

Voting in New Zealand's general election closed at 7 p.m. local time on Saturday, which is 0600 GMT. The contest remains too close to call, Reuters reports. The National Party and Labour both have a chance to form the next government, but each has lost support to smaller parties that will be needed to build a coalition.

A key question is whether the Opportunity Party clears the 5% threshold needed to enter Parliament. Polls suggest that if it does, it would hold the balance of power. The Electoral Commission expects preliminary results from 50% of voting places by 10 p.m., but a new government may not emerge until official results are released on November 27 and coalition talks conclude.

Special votes, including those from overseas voters and people outside their electorate, will not be counted until November 27. Historically these votes have favoured the left, and parties on the right have typically lost support after they are counted.

why it matters

For markets, the main uncertainty is the makeup and economic direction of the next coalition. Prolonged negotiations could delay budget decisions and keep investors cautious on the New Zealand dollar until the government is clear. The 5% threshold and the final count of special votes are the points to watch.

market impact

New Zealand dollar: prolonged coalition uncertainty may keep currency interest subdued

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