Musk warns of US bankruptcy as JPMorgan makes its first Bitcoin return forecast

what happened

Elon Musk, chief of Tesla and SpaceX, has warned of a possible “global bankruptcy” and tied the risk to the development of artificial intelligence. According to Crypto Briefing, during a February 2026 appearance on the Dwarkesh Podcast he said the US would “1000% go bankrupt as a country” without AI and robots. In his view, the economy cannot grow faster than its debt, and only a sharp rise in productivity could cover what the country owes.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan Asset Management included Bitcoin for the first time in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published in October 2026. The firm projects an annualized Bitcoin return of 10% through 2036, above its forecasts for large-cap US stocks and bonds. The argument rests on Bitcoin's capped supply as the broader money supply keeps expanding.

The outlet reports that Tesla holds 11,509 BTC and SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, roughly 30,221 BTC combined, reportedly bought at low average costs. Crypto Briefing also notes that no single Musk statement has been conclusively linked to an immediate move in the Bitcoin price.

why it matters

For markets, the bigger signal is the formal long-term assumption from a major asset manager. Advisers and institutions use such estimates when building portfolios, which suggests Bitcoin is being treated as an asset class worth modeling. Still, the forecast is a long-range estimate rather than a guarantee, and assumptions can fail over a decade. Investors should watch US fiscal policy and debt-servicing costs, whether other large asset managers publish similar Bitcoin assumptions, and any changes in Tesla's and SpaceX's holdings.

market impact

Bitcoin: institutional interest and JPMorgan's long-term forecast support demand for the asset

• ▲Bitcoin pressure up — institutional interest and JPMorgan's forecast support demand for the asset

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