Morgan Stanley Says About 12 GW of Planned Data-Center Capacity Faces Delay Risk by 2030

what happened

Morgan Stanley analysts, as reported by Market Talk, say the Democratic victories in the midterm elections, notably in the Texas and Ohio gubernatorial races, are unlikely to affect AI data centers that are already under construction or slated for completion in 2027.

Future projects, however, may be at risk. The bank estimates that around 4.9 gigawatts of data-center capacity is exposed in 2028. Overall, the analysts consider about 12 gigawatts of capacity scheduled for completion by 2030 to be at risk.

The analysts expect governors to introduce new requirements for data-center projects. “Ultimately we believe that governors will put in place a set of requirements that new data center projects must meet which may delay, rather than reduce, data center volumes,” the analysts say.

why it matters

For the power sector, the key issue is the timing of new capacity connections rather than the overall size of demand. If data-center completions slip, the rise in electricity consumption would arrive later than expected, which matters for utilities and equipment suppliers. The bank's view does not point to lower volumes, so the market is likely to react mainly to the shift in timing.

market impact

Power and AI infrastructure: possible delays to data-center completions shift the outlook for electricity demand.

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