IEA sees oil returning to surplus in Q4 as crude grades hold steady
The IEA expects Q4 oil supply to exceed demand by 1.7 million bpd, while Brent settled near $95.84 and physical crude prices stayed flat.
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what happened
According to the International Energy Agency, the global oil market is set to swing back into surplus in the fourth quarter. In its monthly report, the Paris-based agency said supply would average 105 million barrels per day, 1.7 million bpd above forecast demand, reversing its earlier call for a deficit. Physical crude prices were little changed on Friday, dealers said.
Iraq, OPEC's second-largest producer, has been shipping crude by an overland desert route to Syria's Baniyas port after the Iran war disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In the US, a 90-day waiver allowing foreign-flagged ships to carry oil between American ports was extended, a White House official said. The rig count held at 463.
why it matters
A shift from a forecast deficit to a surplus weighs on the crude balance outlook and on Brent, which settled at $95.84 a barrel. Investors will watch whether rerouted Iraqi barrels and rig activity change the picture in coming months. The Brent-WTI spread settled at minus $8.49.
market impact
Oil: a surplus outlook pressures Brent
- Brent pressure down — a shift to surplus reduces expectations of a supply deficit
tags
instruments
on polymarket
sources
- Grades steady as global oil markets set to return to surplus — Reuters, 13 November 2026 at 22:34 UTC
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