IEA sees oil market back in surplus in Q4 as Gulf shipments rebound
Per Dow Jones Newswires, the IEA expects a return to a Q4 oil surplus as Middle Eastern exports recover despite attacks on tankers and infrastructure.
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what happened
The International Energy Agency, cited by Dow Jones Newswires, now projects that global crude supply will outrun demand in the last three months of 2026, the first such quarter since the Iran war began. Output climbed by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million, after a 3 million gain in September, even though attacks on energy sites and vessels persist.
Gulf shipments excluding Oman averaged 18.4 million barrels daily in October, still roughly a quarter under pre-conflict levels. Crude loadings reached 15 million barrels per day, around 82% of their pre-war volume. The agency lifted its fourth-quarter supply forecast by 3.3 million bpd and expects a bigger surplus next year, while cautioning that renewed strikes on shipping could slow the rebound.
why it matters
For Brent, a shift toward surplus usually weighs on prices, so the next moves will depend on Gulf export routes and tanker security. The October fall in OECD stocks partly offsets the supply recovery.
market impact
Oil: a return to surplus and rising Gulf supply pressure Brent
- Brent pressure down — expected supply surplus in Q4 outweighs demand
tags
instruments
on polymarket
sources
- Global Oil Market Set to Return to Surplus as Gulf Exports Recover, IEA Says — Dow Jones Newswires, 13 November 2026 at 09:10 UTC
- Global Oil Market Set to Return to Surplus as Gulf Exports Recover, IEA Says — Dow Jones Newswires, 13 November 2026 at 09:25 UTC
prepared by the newsmetry newsroom with ai assistance from the sources listed below. not investment advice.
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