IEA: global gas market may stay tight well into 2027

what happened

The global gas market may remain tight until the end of 2027, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), published this week. The war with Iran is cutting supplies, while competition among importers of liquefied natural gas is intensifying. Europe is entering the 2026–27 heating season with gas storage at its lowest level in more than a decade.

The IEA expects global LNG supply to fall by about 3% this year, or nearly 20 bcm. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on key regional infrastructure have curbed exports from Qatar and the UAE. LNG output outside the Persian Gulf rose 14% year on year between March and October, offsetting about two-thirds of the drop in Persian Gulf deliveries, but total worldwide production still fell 6% over the same period.

The agency says the low storage levels will require much larger injections through summer 2027, which could extend the market deficit. Gas demand is also seen falling about 1.5%, or roughly 65 bcm, due to demand destruction in the Middle East, lower industrial use in Europe and a switch from gas to coal in some Asian countries.

why it matters

For markets, this signals that pressure on gas prices in Europe and Asia may last longer than expected: winter starts with limited reserves, and refilling storage will depend on global LNG flows. Weaker demand eases the situation somewhat but does not erase the supply shortfall.

market impact

Gas TTF and LNG: limited supply and low European storage support prices.

• ▲TTF gas pressure up — low European storage and reduced LNG supply support prices

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