Do US stocks always rise after midterm elections? Is this time different?
Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever examines whether the historical post-midterm rally in the S&P 500 will hold after a sharp chip-stock selloff.
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what happened
Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever asks whether the historical pattern of US stock gains in the year after midterm elections will hold. A market meltdown after the vote, he writes, could signal a rough year ahead for Wall Street. According to analysts cited in the column, the S&P 500 rose in every 12-month period after a midterm vote from 1946 to 2022, with an average gain of 14.4%.
He points to several differences from past cycles. The index sits just 5% below its all-time high, the market has never been so concentrated in a few technology companies, and AI investment may be inflating a large bubble. Markets are also pricing in a mild Fed tightening cycle next year, with another half-point hike, far gentler than the historical average.
why it matters
The column matters for markets because chip stocks fell 12% in a sharp reversal, exposing how vulnerable the year's leaders are. If the AI boom slows, the pressure could spread across the broader index. McGeever also flags stagflation as a risk if energy prices stay elevated.
market impact
US stocks: heavy concentration in tech and the risk of slower AI spending weigh on the S&P 500
instruments
on polymarket
sources
- US stocks always rise after midterms. Is this time different?: McGeever — Reuters, 7 November 2026 at 06:00 UTC
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