Copper gains as China supply worries support LME prices

what happened

Copper recovered on Monday from the rout seen last week. Three-month metal on the London Metal Exchange climbed 0.81% to $13,880 a ton, while the most-traded Shanghai Futures Exchange contract added 0.68% to 107,650 yuan ($16,124.93) a ton, as of 0330 GMT, Reuters reported.

Premiums in China reached all-time highs. The Yangshan premium, a gauge of Chinese demand for imported metal, jumped to $215 a ton, and the domestic premium over SHFE contracts reached 2,615 yuan. Stocks tracked by the Shanghai bourse fell to 33,848 tons last week, their lowest level since early 2024, according to the SHFE's latest report. Citi linked this to a lack of scrap and other feedstock, which has left Chinese inventories near multi-year lows.

Pressure is coming from the US midterms. A Democratic sweep raised the chance of tighter limits on US data centres and lowered the odds of the refined copper tariffs Trump had planned, which could weaken AI-linked demand and tariff-driven stockpiling. Citi cut its zero-to-three-month forecast to $13,300 a ton from $14,500.

why it matters

Low Chinese stocks and high premiums limit downside and could draw in imports, yet uncertainty over US tariffs and AI infrastructure spending remains the main risk. Without a clear tariff decision, prices may stay range-bound.

market impact

Copper and aluminium: tight Chinese stocks support prices, while US tariff and AI demand doubts weigh

• ↔Copper (LME) mixed — tight Chinese stocks and premiums support, while tariff and AI-demand doubts weigh

tags

instruments