Consumers Keep Spending, But Signals Point to Weak Holiday Season
Barron's: Apollo and Jefferies see a gap between US spending and sentiment; Jefferies' index fell, putting discretionary stocks at risk.
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what happened
According to Barron's, American consumers are still spending actively despite weak sentiment readings and rising prices. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk says weekly retail sales data remain strong, even as confidence keeps falling across income groups. He calls the gap between what people say and what they actually do significant.
Jefferies analyst Blake Anderson sees a different picture, the publication reports. His Consumer Health Index (CHI) dropped in September to near cycle lows, pressured by energy costs, weaker returns on conservative portfolios and real wage growth at its lowest spread versus inflation in over three years. Credit card balances rose by $16 billion, a new record total.
Anderson cautions that the current CHI level coincides with underperformance versus the S&P 500 and possible multiple compression for discretionary shares. The XLY fund has lagged the broader market this year, though it rose more than 11% from October 1 through November 10.
why it matters
The gap between spending and sentiment matters for discretionary and retail stocks. If Jefferies' view proves right, a weak close to the quarter could weigh on holiday sales and on these shares.
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sources
- Consumers Are Spending Now, But These Signals Spell Trouble for Holiday Shopping — Barrons.com, 11 November 2026 at 19:35 UTC
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