CIMB sees Malaysian exports cooling considerably in 2027
CIMB economists forecast Malaysian exports rising 10.2% in 2027, down from an expected 34.3% in 2026, with semiconductor-cycle risks to the downside.
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what happened
Economists Chew Khai Yen and Michelle Chia at CIMB project that Malaysia's shipments abroad will climb 10.2% in 2027. That is a marked deceleration from the 34.3% gain they expect for 2026, though still above the 3.0% figure from the finance ministry. Market Talk, citing the CIMB note, reports that the slowdown mainly reflects an elevated comparison base last year.
Electrical and electronic goods are seen rising 17.5% next year, while exports from other industries would be roughly unchanged. Spending on AI data infrastructure and regional chip plants should keep demand for semiconductors, memory storage and test gear firm.
Yet heavy reliance on electronics leaves the country exposed to a pullback in AI spending and lower memory prices. If the chip cycle turns down harder, CIMB estimates total exports could shrink 10.6% in 2027.
why it matters
For markets, the forecast signals how closely Malaysia's external trade is tied to the global AI and semiconductor build-out. Shifts in chip demand or memory pricing could feed into the ringgit and sentiment toward the region's technology-heavy equities, so the pace of this cycle is worth tracking.
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sources
- Malaysia's Export Growth Likely to Slow Sharply in 2027 — Market Talk, 6 November 2026 at 08:02 UTC
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