energy

Brent posts biggest weekly drop since pandemic as war premium fades

Brent crude fell 13.3% in a week, its largest weekly loss since the COVID-19 pandemic, as US-Iran diplomacy hopes and recovering Middle East flows eased supply fears.

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what happened

According to Seeking Alpha, Brent futures lost 13.3% over the week, the steepest weekly decline since the week ending April 24, 2020. US crude WTI dropped 12.7%. On Friday, December Brent edged up $0.03 to settle at $98.32 a barrel, while WTI rose 0.3% to $90.83.

Macquarie strategist Walt Chancellor said the market was unwinding the risk premium built up in September and October. The shift followed the US midterm results and expectations of a diplomatic route to ending the conflict with Iran. Bloomberg reported that both sides had moved closer, with Iran weighing proposals from mediator Qatar.

J.P. Morgan sees the oil market moving back into surplus, with Middle Eastern exports recovering to 20.7 million barrels a day in October and demand down 3.3 million barrels a day since the conflict began. Risks remain, however, from attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats to Saudi Arabia and its Red Sea route.

why it matters

The oil sell-off reflects hopes for a settlement and returning Middle Eastern exports, but shipping threats keep price swings likely. Energy stocks, tracked by the XLE ETF, fell 12% this week. Natural gas moved the other way, rising 1.7% to $2.998 per MMBtu on cooler weather forecasts.

market impact

Oil: diplomacy hopes and rising supply put pressure on Brent and WTI; energy stocks also slide

  • Brent pressure down — hopes of a diplomatic settlement and recovering Middle East exports shrink the war premium
  • Energy stocks (XLE) pressure down — lower crude prices weigh on energy company revenue expectations
  • Natural gas pressure up — cooler weather in forecasts lifts heating demand

tags

instruments

BrentWTI ↗Natural gasEnergy stocks (XLE)US natgas

on polymarket

sources

  1. Brent crude caps biggest weekly drop since pandemic as war premium begins to unwind — Seeking Alpha, 7 November 2026 at 00:57 UTC

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