Bitcoin Rebound Lacks Conviction as Analysts Eye U.S. Inflation Data

what happened

Bitcoin is showing early signs of buying after last week's slump, yet according to Market Talk, XS.com analyst Linh Tran says this does not yet mark a trend reversal. Dip-buyers may have stepped in at lower prices, and a modest lift from Asian equities and firmer U.S. stock futures helped sentiment at the start of the week. Still, Tran says that is not enough to show that meaningful capital has returned to the cryptocurrency.

Tran points to fund outflows from spot ETFs and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates as the main drags, and says neither has eased enough to open the way for a sustained climb. In her view, the next move depends largely on U.S. inflation figures and the direction of ETF flows. A durable recovery would require inflation to cool faster than forecast and outflow pressure from funds to fade. At last check Bitcoin was up 0.7% at $74,516, having given back part of its gains.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei rose 1.7% to 58409.30 after solid U.S. jobs data, while the dollar traded at 158.21 yen. The New Zealand dollar firmed to 55.84 U.S. cents as traders awaited the official outcome of Saturday's tight election.

why it matters

For markets, the episode shows how fragile crypto sentiment remains: without steady demand, sellers can quickly regain control, as StoneX's Julian Pineda notes. U.S. inflation data and ETF flows remain the key catalysts, while bets on tighter monetary policy add pressure.

market impact

Bitcoin: tentative rebound without confirmed capital inflows; ETF outflows still weigh on prices

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