ARK's Wood Expects Nvidia's Five-Year Annual Growth to Drop to 25%

what happened

Cathie Wood, chief executive of ARK Invest, expects Nvidia's five-year compound annual growth rate to fall to 25%, well below earlier estimates in the 50% range, according to Stocktwits. She points to mounting competition from Tesla, Broadcom and other chipmakers. Still, she argues that heavy AI demand from firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic could keep supporting the company's expansion.

On Thursday, Nvidia appointed CFO Colette Kress as interim chief executive after removing Jensen Huang from the post. The company's move followed a personal scandal and federal probes into chip exports to China made without authorization. Wood praised Huang for seeing AI's potential long before it became a mainstream theme. The stock slipped 1.9% in overnight trading on Thursday and is on track for its weakest week in more than a year.

ARK had previously expected Nvidia's share of the GPU market to shrink from about 83% to 49%. Wood said that if the return forecast is cut to 38%, the annualized return over five years would fall from the 50s to about 25%. Nvidia shares are down more than 10% so far this year, while retail sentiment on Stocktwits stays 'extremely bullish', with message volume up 593% over the past week.

why it matters

Two issues matter most for investors now: the risk of losing market share and uncertainty over leadership during the CEO transition. This is one private fund's view, not an official company outlook, but it reflects growing doubts that Nvidia will keep its dominant position in AI chips.

market impact

Nvidia (NVDA): slower growth forecast and rising competition weigh on sentiment around the stock

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