Airbus projects aviation services market to double to $420 billion by 2045

what happened

Airbus expects the global commercial aviation services market to more than double, reaching $420 billion by 2045, based on its newest services outlook, as reported by Seeking Alpha. The market is projected to expand 3.8% a year over 2026 to 2045, mainly because the worldwide aircraft fleet is set to grow to 45,550 planes and annual passenger traffic is forecast to rise to 10 billion.

Off-wing work, covering engine and component servicing, is seen reaching $217 billion by 2045 with 3.7% yearly growth. Maintenance operations support, a new category for inventory management and engineering services, could hit $104 billion, rising 4.3% annually. On-wing work such as routine inspections and heavy checks is estimated at $36 billion, growing 2.8% a year.

Digital technology and connectivity is the fastest-growing area, with Airbus projecting 5.3% annual expansion to a $27 billion market, roughly three times its present size. Aircraft modifications and upgrades, such as cabin refits, are forecast at $21 billion, growing 2.6% per year.

Staffing is another major theme. The industry would need more than 2.44 million extra workers, among them about 730,000 technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million flight attendants. The training services market is projected to reach $17 billion by 2045, rising 3.1% annually, and Asia is expected to grow fastest.

why it matters

For investors, the forecast points to revenue that extends well beyond new aircraft deliveries, spanning maintenance, spare parts, engineering and technology upgrades. At the same time, heavier maintenance demand and labor shortages could raise costs for airlines. The report does not show how much of this spending Airbus itself would capture.

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