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Week ahead for FX and bonds: US midterms, jobs data and BoE decision in focus

Dow Jones Newswires says the week from Nov. 2 centers on US midterms, October payrolls and rate decisions in the UK, Sweden, Norway, Brazil and Mexico.

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what happened

According to Dow Jones Newswires, the main drivers for FX and bond markets in the week starting Nov. 2 are the US midterm elections, the October jobs report and a run of central bank decisions. The Bank of England is widely expected to raise its rate by 25 basis points to 4.0%. The Riksbank, Norges Bank, Brazil's central bank and Banxico also announce decisions this week.

Democrats are widely expected to win the House and possibly the Senate. ING's Francesco Pesole said such a sweep could weigh on the dollar through higher shutdown risk and gridlock over the debt ceiling. Money markets price a 76% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike on Dec. 9, according to LSEG data.

In the eurozone, the focus is on October provisional inflation. Investec forecasts annual headline inflation rising to 3.9%, while LBBW expects 4.0%.

why it matters

The week could set the tone for rate expectations in developed markets, where tightening is already priced in several economies. Strong or weak employment and inflation data could shift those views quickly.

market impact

Dollar and US bonds: election outcome and jobs data shift expectations for Fed rates

  • US dollar pressure down — higher shutdown risk and debt ceiling gridlock could weigh on the dollar
  • GBP/USD mixed — an expected BoE hike supports sterling, but a hike below market pricing limits gains

tags

EconomyLaborMonetary Policy

instruments

EUR/USD ↗GBP/USD ↗US dollarFed funds futuresBrazilian realBank of England rates

sources

  1. Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Midterms, Jobs Data in Focus; BOE Expected to Raise Rates — Dow Jones Newswires, 1 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC

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