US third-quarter growth likely picked up on AI spending and consumers
A Reuters survey of economists expects US GDP to have grown at about a 3.2% annualized rate in the third quarter despite pricier oil and a record trade deficit.
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what happened
A Reuters survey of economists points to faster US growth in the third quarter, at a projected 3.2% annualized rate against 2.2% in the second. Economists say steady consumer spending and AI-related business investment have more than offset the cost of higher oil prices tied to the Middle East conflict.
The Commerce Department releases its advance GDP estimate on Thursday. Economists estimate that the goods trade deficit, which hit a record as AI-linked capital goods imports surged, cut at least 4 percentage points from growth, though AI investment likely blunted that drag.
why it matters
The Fed kept its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4.00%, and economists expect a hike in December. Strong growth alongside inflation that remains elevated reinforces that stance, which matters for Treasury yields and the dollar. The main risk is how long debt-funded AI spending can continue.
market impact
Dollar and US Treasuries: strong GDP data supports expectations of a tighter Fed, lifting yields
- US dollar pressure up — expectations of a Fed rate hike in December strengthen the currency
- US Treasuries pressure down — strong growth and tighter Fed expectations push yields higher
tags
instruments
sources
- AI-related investment, consumers likely boosted US economic growth in third quarter — Reuters, 29 October 2026 at 04:00 UTC
prepared by the newsmetry newsroom with ai assistance from the sources listed below. not investment advice.
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