US Stock Futures Open Ahead of Midterm Elections as Markets Await Tuesday Vote

what happened

According to Barron's, US stock futures are set to start trading Sunday evening after last week's tech-driven decline in the market. The new week brings more earnings reports, while Friday's October jobs data and Tuesday's midterm results are the main events to watch.

Standard Chartered strategist Steve Englander says markets may prefer a divided government. He notes that betting markets give Democrats a 70% or greater chance of taking both chambers of Congress. A large Democratic sweep could weaken growth expectations and the dollar, while a Republican hold on both chambers would likely push bond yields and the dollar higher, he said.

Interest in the vote is rising. According to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 53.6 million people had voted early by Sunday afternoon, 8.3 million more than in the 2022 midterms. AAA data show regular gasoline fell to $4.173 a gallon and diesel to $6.304. Brent settled at $113.40, while WTI closed down 0.2% at $103.90.

why it matters

The uncertainty around the makeup of Congress could keep stocks and the dollar volatile until Tuesday. Last week's losses were notable: the Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2%. Year to date, the Dow is up 7.7%, the S&P 500 up 10.7%, and the Nasdaq up 9.4%.

market impact

US stocks and the dollar: election uncertainty adds volatility to major indexes

instruments