UBS opens Vylor coverage with Buy rating and an $89 target

what happened

UBS has begun covering Vylor with a Buy recommendation and an $89 price target. Seeking Alpha reported that the target is about 22% above the company’s Oct. 8 close of $72.79. In an Oct. 12 research note, lead analyst Lucas Beaumont said Vylor’s global seed position and spending on research and development could preserve its pricing power over time.

The company ranks first or second by market share in most of its principal markets and allocates approximately 10% of revenue to R&D. UBS projects roughly 10% annual EBITDA growth through 2029, versus an estimated 7% rate embedded in the shares, while valuing Vylor at about a 9% to 11% discount to peers with comparable growth and return profiles. The bank sees revenue rising from approximately $10.46 billion in 2026 to $12.03 billion in 2029, EBITDA advancing from $2.85 billion to $3.77 billion, and adjusted EPS increasing from $2.57 to $3.80.

Seed-trait licensing is at the center of the thesis. Vylor’s Enlist technology now covers approximately 65% of U.S. soybean acreage, and a settlement with Bayer may give the company broader access to corn-trait licensing. UBS puts the Americas market at approximately $4 billion and estimates that Vylor’s licensing revenue could grow from roughly $400 million today to above $1 billion in 2035 and almost $2 billion in 2040. Higher net royalty income could add approximately $1.6 billion to EBITDA by 2040.

UBS also sees hybrid wheat as a longer-term opportunity. Vylor intends to launch its first U.S. products in 2027, with further varieties planned for 2029 and 2030. Its targets are approximately $500 million of revenue in 2035 and $1 billion in 2040; the bank estimates eventual annual EBITDA of around $500 million. Gene editing could eventually double yearly genetic yield gains, in UBS’s view, supporting seed-price increases of approximately one percentage point per year. The $89 target uses an approximately 18-times enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple; UBS’s bull case is $104 per share and its bear case is $63. Possible catalysts include firmer agricultural commodity prices, results above conservative estimates and regulatory approvals for gene editing. Risks include weaker licensing adoption, competition from Bayer’s next-generation soybean products and delays in bringing new seed technologies to market. Seeking Alpha says its content is informational only and that it does not provide personal investment advice or operate as a licensed securities dealer, broker, U.S. investment adviser or investment bank.

why it matters

The thesis places growing importance on licensing, where incremental revenue has especially attractive margins. Execution, regulation and competition will determine whether those growth assumptions are realized.

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