Trump administration's voter lists could complicate US midterm results

what happened

Reuters reports that the Trump administration has notified officials in five states that it found possible noncitizens on their voter rolls. The main clash is over California, where the Justice Department asked the state not to count ballots from about 20,000 registered voters it considers likely noncitizens, and is now suing to block them.

A federal judge in California rejected that demand on October 28, warning it could 'wreak havoc' on the November 3 elections, and an appeals court upheld the decision. Reuters found the lists were built from voter data gathered from dozens of states, and reviews have shown that many people on them are US citizens. Since 1996, the agency counted just 129 federal cases of noncitizens charged with illegal voting.

Legal experts told Reuters that a losing candidate could argue suspicious votes made it impossible to identify the rightful winner. Such challenges would face serious obstacles, but the disputed lists could still cast doubt on narrow Democratic wins.

why it matters

For markets, the main factor is political uncertainty around tight races that will determine control of Congress. Prolonged disputes over results could delay clarity on tax and regulatory policy, which investors often price in ahead of elections. The effect on assets is indirect and will depend on how the disputes unfold.

market impact

US stocks and dollar: disputes over election results add uncertainty, a mild risk for markets

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