Prediction Market Bets Shift Toward a Democratic Senate Majority
According to WSJ, Polymarket and Kalshi put the odds of a Democratic-controlled US Senate at 90% or higher while the vote count is still underway.
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what happened
Traders on prediction markets keep adding bets that Democrats will regain control of the Senate, doing so before most ballots are counted and before all polling places have closed. The Wall Street Journal reports that Polymarket's implied probability rose to 91% from 77% at the start of the day, while Kalshi's climbed to 90% from 75%.
The platforms are also becoming a visible part of election-night coverage. After prediction market ads appeared widely during the campaign, Kalshi set up a watch party within sight of the U.S. Capitol.
why it matters
For financial markets, these prices mainly show how participants read the likely makeup of Congress, which shapes tax and regulatory policy. The odds on prediction markets are not themselves a forecast of asset prices.
tags
instruments
sources
- Prediction Market Bets Swinging Toward a Democratic Senate — WSJ, 4 November 2026 at 00:50 UTC
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