macro

Poland's September industrial output beats forecasts as economy keeps momentum

Polish industrial output rose 4.6% year on year in September against 3.1% expected, while wage growth slowed to 5.9%, the statistics office reported.

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what happened

Polish industrial production grew 4.6% year on year in September, above the 3.1% the market expected and the 4.0% recorded in August. Output rose 17% month on month, Reuters reported, citing the statistical office.

Poland's economic growth was 3.7% in the first quarter of 2026 and accelerated to 4.1% in the second quarter. Wage growth in September reached 5.9% year on year, up from 5.6% in August but below the 6.1% analysts had expected. The central bank watches this figure closely.

Analysts at Bank Pekao SA said the data showed the economy has not lost momentum.

why it matters

Analysts at ING said that, despite high energy costs, there are no clear signs of them feeding into wages, which supports stable National Bank of Poland rates this year. For the zloty and Polish bonds, this is an argument for keeping current monetary policy without sharp changes.

market impact

Zloty and Polish bonds: strong data supports expectations of steady NBP policy

tags

instruments

PLNEUR/PLNPolish government bondsNBP rate expectations

sources

  1. Poland's economy shows no loss of momentum as September output beats forecasts — Reuters, 20 October 2026 at 08:57 UTC

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