Morgan Stanley Names eBay Top Pick as Wells Fargo Flags EPS Risks

what happened

Wall Street remains split ahead of eBay’s third-quarter report over whether live commerce can keep the company’s growth momentum intact. Stocktwits reports that Morgan Stanley made eBay its Top Pick and lifted its price target from $127 to $132. Wells Fargo kept an Underweight rating and cautioned that investment outlays and competition from Vinted could restrain earnings growth. At the time of writing, the shares were up 1% in Monday premarket trading.

According to The Fly, Morgan Stanley analyst Nathan Feather retained an Overweight rating. He estimated that the U.S. live-commerce market had expanded more than fivefold over the past two years, reaching $27 billion, and that eBay Live represented at least 40% of eBay’s fiscal 2026 GMV increase. Feather described live commerce as “the missing piece” behind the company’s recent acceleration. Morgan Stanley expects eBay Live to add roughly four percentage points to annual GMV growth between FY2026 and FY2030.

The Fly also reported that Wells Fargo cut its eBay target from $92 to $91. The firm expects third-quarter GMV to beat expectations and fourth-quarter guidance to come in about 1% above consensus. Still, it sees ongoing pressure on EPS growth as eBay funds Live and consumer-to-consumer initiatives while facing Vinted. Wells Fargo’s fiscal 2027 EPS forecast is 8% below the analyst consensus.

eBay is expected to release its third-quarter 2026 results in the next few weeks. Fiscal AI says analysts are looking for earnings of $1.39 per share on revenue of approximately $3.10 billion. In results released on August 5, eBay reported second-quarter GMV of $22.4 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase, while revenue rose 15% to $3.1 billion. GMV for eBay Live increased roughly eightfold year over year across seven markets. For the third quarter, eBay’s outlook calls for GMV between $22.0 billion and $22.4 billion, revenue ranging from $3.07 billion to $3.12 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $1.36 to $1.42. GMV represents the value of paid transactions on eBay’s marketplaces, including shipping fees and taxes, before returns or cancellations are deducted; it is not the same as reported revenue. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was Neutral, while message volume over the last 24 hours was Extremely High. eBay shares are up more than 31% year to date.

why it matters

The contrasting views frame the market debate: live commerce may support GMV expansion, while investment needs and Vinted competition could weigh on EPS growth.

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