Mizuho sees up to 20% revenue risk for Circle from AI agents

what happened

Mizuho analysts lowered their price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to $43 from $45 and kept an Underperform rating. They say AI personal assistants pose a "marked risk" to the company's medium-term revenue. Circle shares closed down 7% on Monday at $79.84, according to The Block.

Mizuho estimates wider AI agent adoption could shrink USDC's market capitalization by $4–9 billion and cut Circle's reserve revenue by 10–20%. Agents may steer users toward FDIC-insured fiat products, such as SoFi savings accounts, or to other platforms. About 17% of USDC is currently held on Circle's platform, where holders earn no yield, 30% on Coinbase and 53% elsewhere.

The analysts also cut their 2027 average USDC circulation forecast to $101 billion from $108 billion and expect reserve revenue of $4.1 billion instead of $4.3 billion. Their adjusted EBITDA forecast was reduced about 5%, to $603 million.

why it matters

For markets, this raises a question about the stablecoin business model: Circle's income depends largely on interest from reserves, so it matters whether funds stay in USDC. The company reported roughly $1.4 billion in first-half 2026 revenue.

market impact

Circle (CRCL): AI agents could pull funds out of USDC, pressuring the issuer's revenue

tags

instruments