Middle East Aluminum Restarts Likely to Slow, Jefferies Says
Citing Market Talk and a Jefferies note, Alcoa expects restarts of curtailed Middle Eastern smelters to be more gradual due to high alumina import costs.
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what happened
The aluminum price has fallen roughly 17% since early June, partly because output from Middle Eastern smelter restarts has been rising, according to Market Talk, citing Jefferies.
After a Monday meeting with Alcoa management, the bank says further restarts of curtailed capacity in the region are expected to proceed more slowly. The reason is weak smelter economics there, especially the high cost of imported alumina.
Longer term, Alcoa's management reportedly sees much of the Middle Eastern capacity growth planned before the war as harder to bring online.
why it matters
For markets, this suggests aluminum supply may grow more slowly than expected, which could support prices after a sharp decline. Smelting costs, not only production volumes, are the key factor to watch.
market impact
Aluminum: slower supply growth from the Middle East offers support to prices
- Aluminum pressure up — slower smelter restarts in the Middle East limit supply growth
tags
instruments
sources
- Middle East Aluminum Capacity Ramp Up Likely to Slow — Market Talk, 3 November 2026 at 01:19 UTC
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