Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro hold final rallies before Brazil's runoff vote

what happened

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro closed their campaigns on Saturday ahead of Sunday's runoff. Both candidates are mobilizing supporters and courting undecided voters. According to Reuters, the race remains virtually tied: a CNT/MDA poll on Saturday showed the senator 1.3 points ahead, after he outperformed expectations in the first round.

Lula, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, started his last day with a march along Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro. He later led another march along Paulista Avenue in Sao Paulo. "We're going to win the election for one simple reason: people want change, but they want to move forward, not backward," he told journalists. For many supporters of the 80-year-old president, the closing events carried the feel of a farewell tour.

Bolsonaro joined a motorcycle caravan in Belo Horizonte, capital of the key battleground state of Minas Gerais. No candidate has won the presidency since the 1980s without carrying the state. In the first round, the senator led Lula by around 5 percentage points there. On Friday, the two candidates held a final debate on TV Globo, where they argued over the cost of living.

why it matters

For markets, the key question is how the outcome will shape the real and investor sentiment toward Brazilian stocks and bonds. The race is very close, so the result could shift expectations about economic policy sharply.

market impact

Brazilian real, Ibovespa and Brazil sovereign debt: uncertainty over the election outcome adds risk for the country's assets

tags

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