Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva nearly tied in polls before Brazil's runoff
Polls before Sunday's Brazil runoff show Flavio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva nearly tied, with the senator still favored, according to Reuters.
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what happened
A series of polls released on Saturday put Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at roughly the same level ahead of Sunday's runoff. The right-wing lawmaker, who finished first in the opening round, is still considered the favorite to win.
The surveys differ in their figures. CNT/MDA gives Bolsonaro 46.3% against 45.0% for Lula, while Datafolha shows 48% to 47%, Quaest 46% to 45%, AtlasIntel/Bloomberg 49.9% to 48.4%, and BTG/Nexus 47.0% to 46.0%. In every poll the gap between the two candidates stays within 1.5 percentage points.
why it matters
For markets, the key question is the outcome of the vote rather than the polls themselves. The Brazilian real and local equities often react to political expectations, so such a close race makes the result hard to anticipate. Investors will be watching the outcome of Sunday's vote closely.
market impact
Real and Brazilian stocks: uncertainty before the runoff may add to market swings
tags
instruments
sources
- Bolsonaro, Lula about even in polls for Brazil runoff vote — Reuters, 24 October 2026 at 23:01 UTC
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