Jefferies Sees AGL Energy FY27 Earnings Near Guidance Midpoint, Trims Target
Jefferies sees AGL Energy FY27 Ebitda of A$2.043 billion near guidance midpoint, and trims FY28 forecast and price target on lower forward curves.
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what happened
Market Talk reports that Jefferies, in a note by analyst Anthony Moulder, sees AGL Energy's FY27 Ebitda landing close to the middle of its A$1.90 billion to A$2.20 billion guidance range. The broker itself expects A$2.043 billion for the year. Plant output at the Bayswater and Loy Yang A stations has been running high so far in FY27, while price swings have eased.
The bigger change is in FY28. Lower forward curves led Jefferies to cut its FY28 Ebitda forecast by 1.8% to A$2.016 billion, about 1.1% under consensus. The broker also projects underlying net profit of A$484 million, which is below consensus as well, and lowered its price target by 1.7% to A$10.70 per share. AGL closed Monday at A$9.03.
why it matters
Forward electricity prices feed directly into future earnings for generators, so the FY28 revision matters more to the outlook than the current-year estimates. For investors following Australian power producers, the note shows how wholesale price curves are shaping analyst expectations and why forecasts remain below consensus.
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sources
- AGL's Earnings Appear to Be Tracking in Line with Midpoint of Guidance — Market Talk, 26 October 2026 at 22:52 UTC
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