Jeff Currie Urges Investors to Take Oil Profits as Crude Prices Slide

what happened

Prominent oil bull Jeff Currie has told investors to lock in profits on near-term oil positions, pointing to signs of weakness in the market. In a post on X on Monday, cited by Barron's, he wrote: "Time to take prompt oil profits." Currie, who previously led commodities strategy at Goldman Sachs, is an advisor to the Carlyle Group.

Over the past five days, Brent futures have dropped about $13, or 12%. In the spot market, where oil is bought for immediate delivery, the decline has been far steeper: spot Brent fell from $145 to $110 a barrel, or 24%. The Dubai futures curve has shifted into contango, which Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities says points to ample nearby supply.

Yawger expects U.S. operations in Iran to end soon, while Currie argues neither side wants a prolonged escalation. Longer term, Currie remains bullish, and TD Securities puts Brent fair value at $90–100 a barrel after the conflict ends.

why it matters

The shift to contango and the sharp gap between spot and futures suggest pressure is concentrated at the front of the curve. If the conflict ends, restocking and infrastructure repairs could support prices over the medium term, so near-term and deferred contracts may diverge.

market impact

Oil: expected end of the conflict and surplus near-term supply press spot Brent prices lower

• ▼Brent (spot) pressure down — near-term supply looks ample and contango encourages storage
• ▼Dubai crude pressure down — the curve moved into contango, signaling sufficient prompt supply

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instruments