Intesa Lifts Profit Outlook as Monte dei Paschi Deal Gets Closer

what happened

Intesa Sanpaolo has lifted its 2026 net profit forecast again, now expecting a figure well above 10 billion euros ($11.19 billion), according to Dow Jones Newswires. The earlier target was simply over 10 billion euros. Update notes that this is the second upgrade of the year.

The bank credits higher revenue, driven mainly by fees and insurance income, together with steady costs and a sharp drop in loan-loss provisions. Third-quarter net profit came in at 2.645 billion euros, above the 2.37 billion a year earlier and the 2.54 billion Visible Alpha consensus. Operating income rose 4.2% to 6.92 billion euros, short of the 7.03 billion expected, and a tax change in Italy's 2026 budget will cost almost 1 billion euros.

Meanwhile, Intesa is close to ending its drawn-out effort to take over Monte dei Paschi. Shareholders of the smaller lender last week voted down a defense plan aimed at blocking Intesa's 31.4 billion-euro offer. The European Central Bank has approved the deal, while the Italian market regulator and antitrust authority are expected to rule early next week. An interim dividend of 3.81 billion euros, or 22 cents per share, is also planned.

why it matters

The results matter because they beat forecasts, and management ties them to its 2026-2029 plan. If the Monte dei Paschi purchase goes through, Intesa says it would reach its business plan targets three years early and expects the combined group to earn over 16 billion euros in 2029.

market impact

Intesa Sanpaolo shares: raised profit outlook and third-quarter beat support the stock

• ▲Intesa Sanpaolo shares pressure up — raised profit forecast and quarterly results above expectations

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