Indonesia's Trade Surplus Likely to Narrow as Imports Outpace Exports

what happened

Market Talk reports, citing a note from UOB economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja, that Indonesia's September trade figures point to a sound external sector. Resilient exports and a healthy surplus outside oil and gas are the main supports.

Still, imports are rising faster than exports as domestic demand and investment recover. The economist expects the trade surplus to narrow gradually. In his view, the current account is likely to stay in deficit over the coming quarters, leaving the country's external position more exposed to volatility.

why it matters

For markets, the shift toward a current account deficit matters: this kind of trend typically raises reliance on foreign capital inflows and makes the rupiah more sensitive to external shocks. The note is analytical and offers no forecasts for the currency or policy decisions.

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