Global stocks wobble as traders await US midterm vote; oil slips

what happened

Stock markets around the world were uneasy on Tuesday, with traders focused on the result of the US midterm vote. Most surveys and independent analysts point to Democrats taking the House from Republicans, though control of the Senate is still an open question. A Democratic win could mean stricter scrutiny of artificial intelligence and tighter rules for companies.

In New York, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged up on strength in industrials, tech and communication names, while staples and materials dragged. According to Reuters data, the Dow slipped 0.43%, the S&P 500 gained 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.66%. Europe's STOXX 600 lost 0.58%, and MSCI's global index shed 0.16%. Brent crude dropped 1.12% to $103.60 a barrel after President Donald Trump said he had agreed to halt $4 billion in aid to Israel by year-end, arguing Israel no longer needed it. An Iranian official told Reuters that Washington and Tehran remain far apart on ending their war, and the US carried out overnight 'defensive' strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island.

The dollar firmed against the yen and Swiss franc, while the dollar index held at 101.85 after touching a one-month low on Monday. The yuan weakened 0.33% to 6.67 per dollar after the People's Bank of China moved to raise its foreign exchange reserve requirement, aiming to cool a long yuan rally. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.948% and German Bund yields to 3.33%. Gold fell 0.67% to $3,920.81 an ounce and silver lost 2.23% to $49.50. Bitcoin rose 1.17% to $77,631.79 as crypto markets steadied after last week's Binance hack.

why it matters

Several forces are shaping trading at once: an election that could reshape tech regulation, rising bond yields that make debt-funded spending more expensive, and oil that is sensitive to Iran headlines. Because investors are reacting to multiple events together, moves in stocks, bonds and commodities partly reflect caution ahead of the vote.

market impact

Oil and gold: Iran talks and a firmer dollar weigh on Brent and precious metals

• ▼Brent pressure down — Trump's remarks on Israel aid and stalled Iran talks pushed crude lower
• ▲Dollar pressure up — firmed against the yen and franc during the session
• ▼Gold pressure down — fell in the same session as US and German bond yields rose

tags

instruments