BNP Paribas sees Microsoft's Azure and Copilot driving growth before earnings

what happened

BNP Paribas says Microsoft's AI products are gaining traction ahead of the company's fiscal first-quarter report, due after the close on October 28. In a note to clients reported by Seeking Alpha, analyst Stefan Slowinski, who rates the stock Outperform with a $604 target, cites talks with Microsoft partners. They report more customers rolling out Copilot across entire companies, while some firms are weighing the new E7 pricing tier as they consolidate on Microsoft's software suite.

Slowinski expects Azure growth could speed up in the near term as revenue tied to OpenAI ramps higher. Buy-side expectations sit near 46%, above the company's guidance of 44% to 45%. He estimates that new consumption-based pricing could lift Microsoft 365 Commercial Cloud growth by roughly one percentage point in the fiscal fourth quarter.

why it matters

For investors, the key question is whether Azure beats the 46% buy-side view and whether Copilot monetization shows up in the numbers. Slowinski also named a November 17 investor briefing at the Ignite conference as a further catalyst and called the stock's roughly 24 times CY'27 earnings reasonable. Forecasts like this from major brokers can shift sentiment across the broader US tech sector.

market impact

Microsoft (MSFT) and US tech: upbeat Azure and Copilot outlook supports sentiment ahead of earnings

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