Barclays cuts HubSpot and monday.com ratings over AI timing

what happened

Barclays lowered its ratings on HubSpot and monday.com to Equal-Weight on Monday. Seeking Alpha reported that analyst Raimo Lenschow expects artificial intelligence to produce financial benefits later than previously thought. The two enterprise software stocks showed little movement before the market opened.

For HubSpot, Barclays continues to regard seats and credits as a meaningful source of additional monetization, but now places the main benefit more in 2H27. Net new ARR growth is expected to trail constant-currency revenue growth in FY26, NRR is seen staying broadly flat, and disruption to GTM in April may weigh on the sales pipeline through 2H26. Customer caution, noted during the company’s 2Q results and 2026 Investor Day, is also extending negotiations: Barclays’ checks indicate deal cycles of about five months, compared with four to six weeks before.

At monday.com, AI is expanding rapidly and accounts for 17% of net new ARR, yet represents roughly 1% of total ARR and remains too small to offset slower growth in the core business. NDR is moving toward about 108%, while tier upgrades and multi-product cross-selling are underperforming expectations. Enterprise demand must therefore support the story as SMB stays weak. The company is also repositioning around AI, changing prices, moving GTM toward larger customers and cutting headcount by roughly 20%.

why it matters

For markets, Barclays’ update shifts the focus for both companies toward the timing of AI-related gains. The firm wants evidence that adoption can lead to lasting revenue acceleration before becoming more constructive.

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