Almost All Trading Volume on FIFA-Linked Prediction Market Appears Circular

what happened

According to The Wall Street Journal, almost every trade on the ADI Predictstreet platform in recent months was made by a small network of linked accounts. The paper cites an analysis of public blockchain data by three Harvard students, which crypto-tracking firm Solidus Labs also verified.

Of the $167 million in total transactions, about $108 million came from crypto wallets that the analysis suggests are tied to the company. Trading fees, the data shows, flowed to the same wallet that funded these accounts. ADI Predictstreet did not respond to requests for comment, and FIFA declined to comment.

Gibraltar's gambling regulator, speaking to the paper, said a preliminary review found the platform complied with rules that prohibit self-trading, and said there had been no consumer detriment.

why it matters

For markets, the story is a reminder that volume on young prediction platforms can be artificial, which undermines confidence in liquidity figures and reduces the value of these markets as a signal. According to the report, larger platforms Polymarket and Kalshi saw far less trading on the same Bexar County contest.

market impact

Prediction markets: doubts about volume authenticity may erode trust in newer platforms

tags

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