US waiver on Russian oil tariffs gives India short-term room

what happened

Washington has issued an executive order that puts the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into effect but suspends the 100% tariffs it provides for. Those duties would have hit goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas that make new purchases starting October 18. The waiver has no set end date and can be revoked, while existing Russia-related sanctions remain in force, according to ru.tradingview.com, which relays material from ANI.

The Global Trade Research Initiative sees the decision as temporary relief for India, one that leaves room for renewed tariff pressure in future trade talks. Its data show Russia's share of India's oil imports fell from 51% in July to 44% in August as buyers turned toward the US and UAE. Separately, the US agreed on October 9 to buy Russian diesel to address domestic fuel shortages and high prices.

R Ramachandran, a former BPCL refineries director, argues that the main gain for Indian refiners is a wider choice of crude rather than higher margins. He advises against rushing into long-term contracts until the waiver's duration is clear.

why it matters

For oil markets, the waiver removes a near-term tariff risk on a large flow of Russian barrels and adds flexibility to supply. The open-ended, revocable nature of the waiver keeps uncertainty in place. CareEdge economist Rajani Sinha expects India's current account deficit at 0.8–1.2% of GDP if crude trades at $80–100 a barrel, and does not expect the waiver to give the rupee much direct support.

market impact

Oil: lower tariff risk on Russian barrels adds supply flexibility and eases the risk premium in Brent

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