US trade war fuels Vietnam's coal power boom, Ember data show

what happened

Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire writes that the US-China trade conflict has moved manufacturing and export production into Vietnam, sharply raising the country's electricity demand. Coal-fired plants generated 132.9 terawatt hours in the first nine months of 2026, 15% more than a year earlier and the highest for that period on record, based on Ember data.

A roughly 12% drop in hydropower output after weak summer rainfall has also pushed utilities toward coal. The bigger driver, however, is the export factory sector, which has lifted total power demand by nearly 50% since 2019. Coal now accounts for about 52% of generation this year, and power sector emissions have reached a record 129 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent.

why it matters

For markets, this shows that Vietnam's low-cost exports to the US still rely on coal power, linking them to coal demand and future carbon scrutiny. Without a hydro recovery, pressure on coal demand is likely to persist.

market impact

Coal: stronger domestic power demand in Vietnam supports regional coal consumption

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