US HRW wheat basis holds steady as farmers concentrate on planting

what happened

Newsmetry API reported that basis bids for hard red winter wheat across the southern US Plains were largely unchanged on Monday. Cash-market activity was subdued as farmers concentrated on sowing the 2027 winter wheat crop. Dry conditions in most of the Plains have supported fieldwork, although rain forecast for parts of the southern Plains later this week could slow progress. Merchandisers described the trade as “very slow, everyone's planting wheat.”

The US Department of Agriculture raised its projection for 2026/27 US wheat carryout last week to 740 million bushels, from 717 million in the previous month. The new figure was also above the 721 million-bushel average analyst estimate. K.C. December hard red winter wheat futures (KWZ26) were last down 4-1/4 cents at $7.15 per bushel. Wheat moved lower as traders considered progress toward a Black Sea peace agreement that could let Russia and Ukraine restart seaborne exports.

Basis is quoted against futures in cents per bushel: Enid was 20 cents under and the Texas Gulf was $1.00 over. Kansas bids were Wichita 44 under, with a $6.75 cash price; Newton 69 under, $6.50; and Goodland 65 under, $6.54. Texas bids were Gulf track 95 over, $8.14, and Galveston 100 over, $8.19. Oklahoma bids were Enid 25 under, $6.94, and Catoosa 75 under, $6.44. Notes in the report define U as the K.C. September contract, UNQ as unquoted bids, 0 as an option price and NC as no comparison; * denotes No. 1 12 pct hard winter wheat, while ** denotes ordinary-protein rail bids. The material also includes links to K.C. HRW protein scales, US weekly crop progress, US forward basis, US Midwest cash grain PM, US CIF Gulf Grain and US FOB Gulf Grain.

why it matters

Steady basis levels point to limited cash-market activity during planting. The larger stocks estimate and possible resumption of Black Sea shipments are key elements in how traders assess wheat futures.

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