UN says global warming will exceed earlier estimates even in best case
A UN report says even the most optimistic scenario sees average temperatures rise 1.7–1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century.
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what happened
The UN Environment Programme has published a report projecting that global warming will exceed previous estimates. Even in the most optimistic scenario, average temperatures would rise to 1.7–1.8 °C above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, Reuters reported, citing the report.
According to the UN, reaching that outcome would require cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 18% from 2025 levels by 2030 and by 45% by 2035. Current national plans would deliver only 5–8% by 2030. Under current policies, warming of 2.8 °C is projected by 2100, or 2.6 °C if existing climate pledges are fully implemented. UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged countries not to give up on bringing temperatures back below 1.5 °C by the end of the century.
why it matters
For markets this is a long-term signal: tougher climate agendas could increase regulatory pressure on energy and heavy industry, while demand for carbon credits and carbon removal technology may grow. The report does not have an immediate effect on commodity prices.
market impact
Energy and carbon markets: expected tougher climate policy may add long-term pressure on fossil fuels.
instruments
sources
- UN sees higher global warming, even in best-case scenario — Reuters, 21 October 2026 at 05:00 UTC
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